Remilitarization

The post-Cold-War peace dividend is over. Global defense spending hit $2.4T in 2025; three countries (US, China, Russia) drive half of it. Europe is rearming for the first time since 1990 — Germany alone added $114B in 2025. NATO 2% targets that were aspirational in 2014 are now floors, not ceilings. The defense industrial base, which atrophied for three decades, is being rebuilt.

What is different this cycle: the procurement money is flowing to a new layer of companies. Anduril (autonomous systems, drones), Palantir (battlefield software, AI fusion), Rocket Lab (launch + reentry), Shield AI, Skydio — all built in the last 15 years. Legacy primes (Lockheed, Northrop, Raytheon) remain dominant in dollar terms, but the marginal innovation budget is moving downstream toward AI-native defense tech.

The arc peaks roughly two years out (24 months) before tapering — the rearmament cycle has a natural shape: surge to rebuild capacity, then settle to a higher baseline. The Current is operative for the entire steward planning horizon, but most strategically actionable in the next 24 months when procurement vehicles are being established and new entrants are securing their first major contracts.

For stewards: this Current touches supply chains (rare earths, semiconductors, energetic materials), capital markets (defense IPOs, SBIR/STRATFI pipelines), labor (cleared workforce competition), and policy (export controls, ITAR, Foreign Direct Investment review). Adopt it if you build, finance, or sell anything adjacent.