Schemas
The lenses through which we read the world.
A schema is an interpretive framework — a structured way of reading what the economy, the credit cycle, or a technology is doing right now. Each scored schema reads live lattice signals against a published range for every stage and reports how likely each stage is — and withholds the read when the evidence is too thin to carry one. This catalog is the public wiki — the same schemas a Palanor steward sees tuned to their own house.
Each row is one schema. Each cell is a week, shaded by where that schema sat in its own cycle — lighter early, brighter late. Schemas don’t share a scale, so read each row against itself and read down a column for the posture of the whole lattice.
- AI Margin CompressionResolution 86%
- Capital window closureOpen 71%
- Defense + national securitySurge 92%
- Energy industryInvestment Expansion 95%
- Financial Instability HypothesisSpeculative finance 82%
- Howard Marks Market CycleOptimism 49%
- Real estate industryRecovery 61%
- Regulatory ShockStable Baseline 46%
- Rolling RecessionSequential resolution 82%
- Shiller CAPE RegimeExtreme 100%
- Talent cycle tighteningTight 53%
6 schemas are published as lenses, not readings, and have no position to chart.
Featured
Rolling Recession
A pattern where contraction moves through sectors in sequence — housing, goods, freight, labor, services — so the aggregate never prints a recession while individual sectors take their turn.
AI Margin Compression
A thesis schema — the cost of intelligence falling faster than the price of software puts software-sector margins under structural pressure.
Defense + national security schema
The defense-industrial cycle — from peace dividend through stabilization, elevation, surge, and wartime mobilization. Each phase has its own procurement posture, primes vs. new-entrant capture, and supply-chain shape.
Financial Instability Hypothesis
Stability breeds instability. Credit posture migrates from hedge finance to speculative to Ponzi — until the moment it cannot.
Industry
4
Sector arcs — defense, energy, real estate, SaaS. Each schema tracks where its industry sits across the cycle.
Defense + national security schema
The defense-industrial cycle — from peace dividend through stabilization, elevation, surge, and wartime mobilization. Each phase has its own procurement posture, primes vs. new-entrant capture, and supply-chain shape.
Palanor
Surge92%▲ 5 pts · 30dEnergy industry schema
The energy-cycle arc from investment expansion through capacity peak, oversupply, consolidation, and demand recovery. Reads the upstream/downstream tension across hydrocarbons + transition commodities.
Palanor
Investment Expansion95%▼ 2 pts · 30dReal estate industry schema
The real-estate cycle — recovery, expansion, hypersupply, recession, reset. Tracks both residential affordability dynamics and commercial cap-rate compression/expansion.
Palanor
Recovery61%new · was Hypersupply · 30dSaaS industry schema
The SaaS cycle through hypergrowth, multiple compression, path to profitability, margin discipline, and consolidation. Today's reading is shaped by AI margin compression and the closed-then-reopening capital window.
Palanor
A lens
Risk
3
Named threats — talent tightening, capital window closure, AI margin compression. Each schema is the shape of the risk.
AI Margin Compression
A thesis schema — the cost of intelligence falling faster than the price of software puts software-sector margins under structural pressure.
Palanor (Tim Woodring)
Resolution86%new · was Compression · 30dCapital window closure schema
The capital-cycle gate — wide open, open, watchful, tightening, closed. The CFO + treasurer's read on whether the next refinance, raise, or deal closes on familiar terms.
Palanor
Open71%▲ 9 pts · 30dTalent cycle tightening schema
The labor-market arc — loose, balanced, tight, overheated, cooling. Reads the steward's exposure to wage-price pressure, retention crisis, and the layoff cycle.
Palanor
Tight53%▼ 3 pts · 30d
Cycle
9
Macro and financial cycles — the foundational reading frames that pre-date the formal family taxonomy.
Financial Instability Hypothesis
Stability breeds instability. Credit posture migrates from hedge finance to speculative to Ponzi — until the moment it cannot.
Hyman Minsky
Speculative finance82%▲ 7 pts · 30dHoward Marks Market Cycle
Markets oscillate between fear and greed in four observable stages. The investor edge is recognizing which stage you are in, not predicting the next one.
Howard Marks (Oaktree)
Optimism49%▼ 11 pts · 30dHype Cycle
A five-stage path technologies travel from innovation trigger through inflated expectations, disillusionment, enlightenment, and productive plateau.
Popularized by Gartner
A lensKondratiev Long Wave
A roughly 50–60 year cycle of capitalist economies — spring expansion, summer inflation, autumn credit boom, winter contraction — driven by waves of technological and infrastructural investment.
Nikolai Kondratiev
A lensMarathon Capital Cycle
A supply-side cycle: high returns attract capital, capital builds capacity, capacity destroys returns, returns shrink, capital leaves — and the cycle re-seeds.
Marathon Asset Management
A lensRolling Recession
A pattern where contraction moves through sectors in sequence — housing, goods, freight, labor, services — so the aggregate never prints a recession while individual sectors take their turn.
Popularized by Liz Ann Sonders; refined by Torsten Sløk and contemporary macro analysts
Sequential resolution82%▼ 1 pts · 30dShiller CAPE Regime
Long-horizon valuation framework — the cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio orders equity-market regimes from cheap to expensive, with implications for forward 10-year returns.
Robert Shiller
Extreme100%→ 0 pts · 30dSoros Reflexivity
Markets do not merely reflect fundamentals — perception shapes the fundamentals themselves, producing self-reinforcing booms and self-reinforcing busts.
George Soros
A lensThe Big Cycle
Three interlocking cycles — long-term debt, internal order, external order — drive the rise and fall of empires and reserve currencies.
Ray Dalio
A lens
Other
1
Not yet classified.
Stewards see schemas tuned to their own house.
The public wiki shows the global read. A Palanor steward sees each schema scored against their organization's profile, with Numen commentary tuned to their role and disposition.