US House Shortage

The American housing affordability collapse of 2020–2023 has plateaued at a painful level. Median home prices roughly 4–10x median income across major metros — three times the historical norm of 3x. The underlying mismatch is structural: two decades of under-building, a tax code that subsidizes incumbents, zoning regimes that block density, and a labor force trained for the volume of homes the country built a generation ago.

Unlike inflation, this shortage cannot be fixed by raising rates. Higher mortgage rates make existing homeowners refuse to sell — locking them into 3% notes — and make new construction less attractive, so supply tightens further. The window for this Current to close is measured in years, possibly a decade. The arc holds high across the entire planning horizon.

For stewards: this changes labor markets (workers cannot move for jobs), capital allocation (housing absorbs disposable income that would otherwise reach consumption), and politics (housing scarcity radicalizes the under-35 voter). It is not a temporary distortion — it is the operating environment.