Scenarios is the heart of Palanor. Each scenario is a future you are watching for, with a signal map that determines its probability over time. As signals move, probability shifts. When probability crosses a threshold, leading actions stage the response.
Four boards per scenario
Every scenario carries four boards: Data (the signal contributions), Narrative (Numen's read on what is happening and why it matters), Timeline (key dates and milestones), and Leading Action (the staged decisions). All four are editable in place.
The four-active discipline
A steward can hold at most four active scenarios at a time. This is a discipline, not a limit — most organizations cannot attend to more than four meaningful futures at once. Draft scenarios are unlimited.
Probability is not a forecast
The probability number is a weighted score, not a prediction. Two scenarios at 60% mean very different things if their signal maps differ. Read the boards, not just the number.