Most leadership teams attend well to four scenarios at a time. A watchlist of twelve becomes a watchlist nobody reads. So four is the discipline we recommend — but it is no longer a hard cap.
How the watch works today
There is no ceiling. Add as many scenarios as your team genuinely intends to track. The Scenarios page shows the live count, sorts by your chosen mode (Most Probable, Most Movement, Highest Impact, A→Z, Z→A), and the chart graphs every scenario you are watching, each in a unique accent color.
We extended the scenario palette to eight unique colors so up to eight scenarios read cleanly on the chart. Past eight, accents begin to repeat — which is itself a signal worth heeding.
How to manage rotation
Quarterly review is still the right cadence. At the start of each quarter, look at the watch: is each scenario still worth attending to? If not, archive it. Archived scenarios retain their full history, their probability curve, their leading-action ledger — you can resurrect them later without losing anything.
For most stewards, the working set sorts naturally into three classes: structural (a year-plus outlook on something always relevant), near-term events (a regulatory decision, a major launch), and contrarian reads (futures the consensus is underweighting). When a new scenario presses for attention, the question is whether it belongs in one of those three classes — or whether you are reaching for it because the world feels noisier than usual.
The discipline is the principle. The ceiling is your judgment.