BAA spread widens twelve basis points; two BDCs raise gates.
The capital window keeps closing on its own schedule, regardless of what the central banks do next.
Two large BDCs paused redemptions citing valuation uncertainty. The Capital Tightness reading lifts three points. Refinancing windows tighten for the late-2025 maturity cohort — H2 issuance now competes head-on with Treasury.
A redemption pause inside a widening credit-spread regime is the cleanest leading-indicator the cycle gives. Two private debt funds gated overnight, citing the same valuation-mark difficulty. The pattern matters more than either gate in isolation.
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