Oil held below $100 as China demand sags, Russia talks
Weak Chinese imports offset geopolitical risk while cattle pest surfaces in Texas for the first time in sixty years.
Crude oil prices remain well below $100 per barrel despite active Russia-US negotiations on energy and a shrinking global supply cushion. According to the Financial Times, Chinese oil imports have fallen to near-decade lows, a structural headwind that traders say is the single biggest factor keeping the market from repricing higher. Weak demand from the world's largest importer is absorbing geopolitical premium that would otherwise flow through.
Reuters reports that a Putin envoy confirmed ongoing talks between Russia and the United States on energy and economic matters, though details remain sparse. The fact that dialogue continues suggests both sides see room for tactical coordination even as broader sanctions architecture stays in place. Markets have not repriced meaningfully on the headline.
The energy story shares the commodity tape with an animal health development. The US Department of Agriculture confirmed a case of New World screwworm in Zavala County, Texas—the first domestic detection in six decades. Axios notes the US beef herd is already at a 75-year low and retail beef prices sit at record highs. The pest, a burrowing fly larva, had been moving north through Mexico, and the industry had been bracing for reentry.
The screwworm finding does not yet constitute an outbreak, but the USDA launched an emergency response. If containment fails, the cattle sector faces a supply shock layered on top of an already-tight herd. Protein inflation, which had shown signs of plateauing, could rerate quickly. The risk is not yet in futures curves, but it is now named and on the board.
Sources · 4
Putin envoy says Russia-US talks on energy, economy continue - Reuters
Reuters Business
Slumping Chinese oil imports ‘shield’ global market from higher prices
FT Companies
New World screwworm confirmed in Texas, stoking fresh cattle fears
Axios Business
FirstFT: Trump’s US manufacturing push falters
FT Companies
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Anas Alhajji @anasalhajji
39 eng36d🔸Why Gasoline and Diesel Shortages May Not Lift Crude Oil Prices 🔸What is the current status of global commercial crude oil stocks compared to pre-Hormuz Crisis levels? 🔸Why have total inventory declines been misleading, and where has most of the decline actually occurred? https://t.co/t9971Ri7gf
View on X →Teortaxes▶️ (DeepSeek 推特🐋铁粉 2023 – ∞) @teortaxesTex
24 eng36d'member how this war was supposed to squeeze them of oil? Trump's brilliant 4D chess, the Great Game? Their average exports to China were ≈1.7M bpd/day. China has cut their imports by MORE THAN DOUBLE THAT. And they're not rationing. They can take it. https://t.co/jgEgo8rR8D https://t.co/rEsgBpkZhi
View on X →Investor_NICK @Investor_NICK_
11 eng36dOne of the more interesting things about oil right now is China significantly cutting back oil imports which meaningfully helps stabilize oil prices. I’d think they want oil @ $120 to cause immense pain to US. But very nice of them to do this for the global economy. https://t.co/U7C1emZk90
View on X →Neeraj Bajpai @NeerajCNBC
8 eng36dChinese oil imports at near-decade low, helping tamp down global crude prices China’s low imports have shielded the rest of the oil market, estimating the amount of seaborne oil arriving in China in the past 30 days has plunged to 7.5M bbl/day from 13M bbl/day at this time last
View on X →Virupaksha Swamy @swamy95000
1 eng36dChina Is Weaponizing the Timing of Oil Demand China is not draining its oil reserves because prices are high. Those reserves are for real emergencies: Taiwan, the South China Sea, maritime disruption, or war. China does not build strategic reserves only to waste them during https://t.co/83a4YQXbKy
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