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AI Capability Frontier: Open vs. Closed Models
Highest Epoch Capabilities Index score reached by any model, and by open-weight models
Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.
All models · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days
Open-weight models · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days
Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. Shaded: the range about two in three outcomes land in. A projection, not a promise.
Source: Epoch AI Capabilities Index (CC BY 4.0). Each line is the best score reached by the date of model release.
The best AI capability score achieved over time, for all models and for models whose weights are openly released. The gap shows how far open models trail the frontier.
What this chart reads
- AI Capability Frontier (Epoch Capabilities Index)as “All models”latest 2026-10-01
- Open-Weights AI Capability Frontier (Epoch Capabilities Index)as “Open-weight models”latest 2026-10-01
Sources
AI Capability Frontier (Epoch Capabilities Index). Source: Epoch AI, Epoch Capabilities Index (epoch.ai/eci), from the benchmark_data.zip bundle at epoch.ai/benchmarks. Licensed CC BY 4.0: "Epoch AI's data is free to use, distribute, and reproduce provided the source and authors are credited." Palanor computes the monthly running maximum.
Open-Weights AI Capability Frontier (Epoch Capabilities Index). Source: Epoch AI, Epoch Capabilities Index (epoch.ai/eci); models in Epoch's "Open weights" accessibility group. Licensed CC BY 4.0. Palanor computes the monthly running maximum.
Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.