Line
The AI-Era Nasdaq Against the Dot-Com Nasdaq
Nasdaq Composite, monthly average, % of each era’s peak month, aligned so the AI-era high sits on the dot-com peak
Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.
AI era · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days
Dot-com era, same distance from its peak · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days
Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. Shaded: the range about two in three outcomes land in. A projection, not a promise.
Nasdaq Composite (Nasdaq, Inc.) via FRED, monthly averages of daily closes; alignment and indexing are a Palanor calculation. The AI era starts in December 2022; the dot-com peak month is March 2000. The dot-com line shows where the index stood the same number of months before or after its peak as each AI-era month is from the AI-era high. If the index sets a new high, the alignment moves with it. A comparison of paths, not a forecast.
Is the AI rally tracing the dot-com bubble? Both lines are indexed to their era’s peak month and aligned at that peak, on one scale. The dot-com Nasdaq climbed far more steeply into March 2000, and fell by about three quarters over the next two and a half years.
What this chart reads
- Nasdaq Composite in the AI Era · % of Its AI-Era Highas “AI era”latest 2026-09-01
- Dot-Com Nasdaq at the Same Distance From Its Peakas “Dot-com era, same distance from its peak”latest 2026-09-01
Sources
Nasdaq Composite in the AI Era · % of Its AI-Era High. Source: Nasdaq Composite index (Nasdaq, Inc.), daily closes via FRED series NASDAQCOM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM. Monthly averages and the alignment are a Palanor calculation (src/lib/fred/composites.ts, run daily by fred-composites). Index data © Nasdaq, Inc., shown under Palanor's display rights for this series; not available as a data file.
Dot-Com Nasdaq at the Same Distance From Its Peak. Source: Nasdaq Composite index (Nasdaq, Inc.), daily closes via FRED series NASDAQCOM: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/NASDAQCOM. Monthly averages and the alignment are a Palanor calculation (src/lib/fred/composites.ts, run daily by fred-composites). Index data © Nasdaq, Inc., shown under Palanor's display rights for this series; not available as a data file.
Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.