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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.06Palanor: Geopolitical Stress59.7-0.25Palanor: Liquidity58.8+0.87Palanor: Capital Tightness46.4-1.11Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression52.8-0.63Palanor: Consumer Confidence47.1-1.44Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.5+0.01Palanor: Labor Heat63.20.00Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.7+0.64Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.2-0.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.7+0.74Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.7-0.15Palanor: AI Substitution28.6+0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.8+0.43Palanor: Quit Pressure34.7-2.85The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.5+0.37Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.4-0.05Rise of Socialism Index40.6-0.18The Bubble Memory98.5-0.00Palanor: Steward Confidence51.0+0.19The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.20.00The Capital Return Index80.2-0.77The Discourse Index74.3+1.91The Hesitation Index33.4+2.64Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index76.1-2.39The Boardroom Index81.7-0.84The Layoff Cycle Index35.6+2.75Capital Deployment Posture Index61.7-0.67The Consumer Health Index41.8+0.07Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index65.5-1.13Palanor: Risk Appetite35.4-0.76
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AI in Federal Contract Solicitations

Share of solicitations posted on SAM.gov whose title or description names AI, %

0.28% in Q3 2026the highest in data back to 2024+0.20 pp since Q3 2024
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
Forecast availableOffContinuationForesight™
Show · 3 ▾
U.S. recessionsShades the months the NBER dates as recession. U.S. charts only.5-year rangeThe highest and lowest readings of the last five years, as a band. One-series charts only.High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Q3 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Federal contract notices on SAM.gov by the month they were posted, counted once by the type they were first posted as. Solicitations include combined synopsis/solicitations. Not every federal purchase is posted. AI is read from the words with fixed rules (methodology on the signal). Quarterly averages of the monthly shares.

How much of what agencies put out to bid asks for artificial intelligence, machine learning or language models, by the words in the solicitation itself.

What this chart reads

Sources

Federal Contract Solicitations Naming AI (% of Solicitations). Source: SAM.gov Contract Opportunities, U.S. General Services Administration: the public data extracts on sam.gov/data-services (ContractOpportunitiesFullCSV.csv, every active notice, daily; the Archived Data files FY2018 on). Public domain. Refreshed daily.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

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