Skip to content
Palanor is in early release, with our founding customers.Become a founding customer →
The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
PalanorPalanor

Line

Federal Solicitations Set Aside for Small Businesses

Share of solicitations posted on SAM.gov set aside for small businesses of any kind, %

54.5% in Q3 2026the highest since 2024+1.5 pp since Q3 2021
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
ForecastOffContinuationForesight™
Show · 1 ▾
U.S. recessionsShades the months the NBER dates as recession. U.S. charts only.5-year rangeThe highest and lowest readings of the last five years, as a band. One-series charts only.High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Q3 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Palanor Foresight™ comes with a free Palanor account. Create one · Continuation is open to everyone.

Federal contract notices on SAM.gov by the month they were posted, counted once by the type they were first posted as. Solicitations include combined synopsis/solicitations. Not every federal purchase is posted. Any set-aside: small business, 8(a), HUBZone, service-disabled veteran-owned and women-owned. Quarterly averages of the monthly shares.

The share of federal bids only small businesses can win. It moves with agency policy on set-asides and with the mix of what is being bought.

What this chart reads

Sources

Federal Solicitations Set Aside for Small Businesses (%). Source: SAM.gov Contract Opportunities, U.S. General Services Administration: the public data extracts on sam.gov/data-services (ContractOpportunitiesFullCSV.csv, every active notice, daily; the Archived Data files FY2018 on). Public domain. Refreshed daily.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

Related charts

GovernmentForecast

U.S. Federal Debt Since 1790

Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP, %

99.4%Data to Sep 2025
GovernmentForecast

Trust in the Federal Government

Share of Americans who trust the federal government to do what is right always or most of the time, %

22%Data to Jun 2025
GovernmentForecast

Interest Costs in the Federal Budget

Federal interest as a share of outlays and of tax receipts, %

13.8%Data to Apr 2026
GovernmentForecast

US National Defense Spending (NIPA)

Federal national defense consumption expenditures and gross investment, $ billions, seasonally adjusted annual rate (BEA NIPA via FRED FDEFX).

1,190Data to Apr 2026
GovernmentForecast

Interest Costs vs. Defense Spending

Federal interest payments divided by national defense spending, ratio

1.08Data to Apr 2026
GovernmentForecast

U.S. Defense Spending

National defense spending as a share of GDP, %

3.7%Data to Apr 2026

Cookies

We only use essential cookies to keep you signed in and remember your theme. No analytics, no tracking, no ads. See the Privacy Policy for the full read.