Skip to content
Palanor is in early release, with our founding customers.Become a founding customer →
The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
PalanorPalanor

Line/From the Studio

Initial Jobless Claims, Four-Week Average

New claims for state unemployment insurance, averaged over four weeks.

198,500 on Oct 10, 2026−163,750 since Jan 6, 1990
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
ForecastOffContinuationForesight™
Show ▾
U.S. recessionsShades the months the NBER dates as recession. U.S. charts only.5-year rangeThe highest and lowest readings of the last five years, as a band. One-series charts only.High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Oct 10, 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days

Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. Shaded: the range about two in three outcomes land in. A projection, not a promise.

What this chart reads

Sources

Initial jobless claims · 4-week average. Source: U.S. Employment and Training Administration (Department of Labor), Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report, 4-week moving average of initial claims, seasonally adjusted (FRED series IC4WSA). Palanor pulls it from the FRED API (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) nightly.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

Related charts

Jobs & wagesForecast

Initial Jobless Claims

New U.S. unemployment insurance claims, 4-week average

198,500Data 12 days ago
Jobs & wagesForecast

Weekly Jobless Claims

New U.S. unemployment insurance claims each week and their 4-week average, seasonally adjusted

199,000Data 12 days ago
People & societyForecast

"Artificial intelligence safety" — Wikipedia pageviews

Daily pageviews of the English Wikipedia article on artificial intelligence safety, reflecting public interest in AI risk and governance.

25.0Data yesterday
People & societyForecast

"H-1B visa" — Wikipedia pageviews

Daily pageviews of the English Wikipedia article on H-1B visas, tracking public attention to the skilled worker visa program.

351Data yesterday
People & societyForecast

"Data privacy" — Wikipedia pageviews

Daily pageviews of the English Wikipedia article "Data privacy".

28.0Data yesterday
People & society

Who Owns America’s Wealth

Share of U.S. household net worth by wealth group, %

32.5%Data to Jun 2026

Cookies

We only use essential cookies to keep you signed in and remember your theme. No analytics, no tracking, no ads. See the Privacy Policy for the full read.