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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.06Palanor: Geopolitical Stress59.7-0.25Palanor: Liquidity58.8+0.87Palanor: Capital Tightness46.4-1.11Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression52.8-0.63Palanor: Consumer Confidence47.1-1.44Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.5+0.01Palanor: Labor Heat63.20.00Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.7+0.64Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.2-0.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.7+0.74Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.7-0.15Palanor: AI Substitution28.6+0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.8+0.43Palanor: Quit Pressure34.7-2.85The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.5+0.37Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.4-0.05Rise of Socialism Index40.6-0.18The Bubble Memory98.5-0.00Palanor: Steward Confidence51.0+0.19The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.20.00The Capital Return Index80.2-0.77The Discourse Index74.3+1.91The Hesitation Index33.4+2.64Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index76.1-2.39The Boardroom Index81.7-0.84The Layoff Cycle Index35.6+2.75Capital Deployment Posture Index61.7-0.67The Consumer Health Index41.8+0.07Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index65.5-1.13Palanor: Risk Appetite35.4-0.76
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Line

Horizon Turbulence

Palanor Horizon Turbulence, 0 = calmest month since 2000, 100 = most turbulent

61 in Oct 2026+47 since Oct 2021
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
ForecastOffContinuationForesight™
Show · 1 ▾
U.S. recessionsShades the months the NBER dates as recession. U.S. charts only.5-year rangeThe highest and lowest readings of the last five years, as a band. One-series charts only.High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Oct 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days

Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. Shaded: the range about two in three outcomes land in. A projection, not a promise.

Combines financial stress, credit spreads, bond volatility, policy, trade and geopolitical uncertainty, card delinquencies and the Sahm rule, each scored against its own record.

How turbulent the environment is for long-range planning, measured against every month since 2000. Each input is placed on its own record so today can be compared with past episodes of strain.

What this chart reads

Sources

Horizon Turbulence. Source: Palanor.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

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