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Open-Weight Models’ Share of AI Traffic

Open-weight models’ share of tokens and spend on the Vercel AI Gateway, weekly average, %

Tokens: 56% on Oct 18, 2026+49 pp since Oct 5, 2025
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
ForecastOffContinuationForesight™
Show · 1 ▾
High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Oct 18, 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Tokens · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days

Spend · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days

Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. Shaded: the range about two in three outcomes land in. A projection, not a promise.

Share of traffic on one gateway, not of the whole market. Source: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboard (CC BY 4.0).

How much developer traffic runs on models with openly released weights. Open models usually take a larger share of tokens than of spend because they are cheaper per token.

What this chart reads

Sources

Open-Weight Model Share of AI Gateway Tokens. Source: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboard (https://vercel.com/ai-gateway/leaderboards), daily, from 1 October 2025. © 2026 Vercel. "AI Gateway Leaderboard Data" is licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Palanor stores each day's shares and derives the series shown here; the current, incomplete UTC day is never published.

Open-Weight Model Share of AI Gateway Spend. Source: Vercel AI Gateway Leaderboard (https://vercel.com/ai-gateway/leaderboards), daily, from 1 October 2025. © 2026 Vercel. "AI Gateway Leaderboard Data" is licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). Palanor stores each day's shares and derives the series shown here; the current, incomplete UTC day is never published.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

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