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Mortgages Locked In Below the Market Rate

Estimated share of outstanding mortgages with a rate below the Freddie Mac 30-year rate (quarterly average), %

77.6% in Q2 2026the lowest since 2022+66.5 pp since Q1 2013
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
ForecastOffContinuationForesight™
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U.S. recessionsShades the months the NBER dates as recession. U.S. charts only.5-year rangeThe highest and lowest readings of the last five years, as a band. One-series charts only.High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Q2 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 1 year

Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. Shaded: the range about two in three outcomes land in. A projection, not a promise.

Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Mortgage Database: first-lien residential mortgages open at the end of each quarter, a one-in-twenty sample of mortgages in credit files, shares by number of loans. Palanor’s estimate: NMDB publishes whole-point buckets, so the bucket the market rate falls in is split in proportion. The open top bucket is never split, so while the market rate is in it the figure is the share in all the lower buckets, a lower bound. No estimate is drawn for quarters when the market rate was below the lowest bucket edge (most of 2020 and 2021).

How many American homeowners hold a mortgage cheaper than they could get today. It was low while rates sat near record lows; when rates jumped in 2022 most borrowers were suddenly locked in, and the share has eased only slowly since.

What this chart reads

Sources

Estimated Share of Outstanding U.S. Mortgages Below the Market Rate · %. Source: Palanor calculation (src/lib/fhfa/nmdb.ts) from Federal Housing Finance Agency, National Mortgage Database (NMDB®) aggregate statistics, outstanding residential mortgage statistics, national, quarterly (https://www.fhfa.gov/document/d/nmdb/nmdb-outstanding-mortgage-statistics-national-census-areas-quarterly.zip); data dictionary and technical notes 2026Q1. NMDB is a joint FHFA and Consumer Financial Protection Bureau program; FHFA publishes these aggregates. U.S. government work: "information and materials produced by Federal agencies, including FHFA, are in the public domain" (fhfa.gov website policy). Read weekly. Market rate: Freddie Mac, Primary Mortgage Market Survey®, 30-year fixed, weekly, via FRED (MORTGAGE30US), averaged over each quarter with at least 10 weekly readings.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

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