Skip to content
Palanor is in early release, with our founding customers.Become a founding customer →
The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.06Palanor: Geopolitical Stress59.7-0.25Palanor: Liquidity58.8+0.87Palanor: Capital Tightness46.4-1.11Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression52.8-0.63Palanor: Consumer Confidence47.1-1.44Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.5+0.01Palanor: Labor Heat63.20.00Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.7+0.64Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.2-0.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.7+0.74Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.7-0.15Palanor: AI Substitution28.6+0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.8+0.43Palanor: Quit Pressure34.7-2.85The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.5+0.37Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.4-0.05Rise of Socialism Index40.6-0.18The Bubble Memory98.5-0.00Palanor: Steward Confidence51.0+0.19The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.20.00The Capital Return Index80.2-0.77The Discourse Index74.3+1.91The Hesitation Index33.4+2.64Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index76.1-2.39The Boardroom Index81.7-0.84The Layoff Cycle Index35.6+2.75Capital Deployment Posture Index61.7-0.67The Consumer Health Index41.8+0.07Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index65.5-1.13Palanor: Risk Appetite35.4-0.76
PalanorPalanor

Line

Interest Costs vs. Defense Spending

Federal interest payments divided by national defense spending, ratio

1.08 in Q2 2026+0.00 since Q2 2025
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
ForecastOffContinuationForesight™
Show · 3 ▾
U.S. recessionsShades the months the NBER dates as recession. U.S. charts only.5-year rangeThe highest and lowest readings of the last five years, as a band. One-series charts only.High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Reading overdue·Data to Q2 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 1 year

Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. Shaded: the range about two in three outcomes land in. A projection, not a promise.

When the line is above parity, the government spends more on interest than on defense.

A simple way to see the weight of interest costs: compare them with what the U.S. spends on its military. When the ratio passes parity, interest is the bigger line.

What this chart reads

Sources

US Interest ÷ Defense Spending. Source: Derived by Palanor from BEA NIPA data via FRED.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

Related charts

GovernmentForecast

U.S. Federal Debt Since 1790

Federal debt held by the public as a share of GDP, %

99.4%Data to Sep 2025
GovernmentForecast

Trust in the Federal Government

Share of Americans who trust the federal government to do what is right always or most of the time, %

22%Data to Jun 2025
GovernmentForecast

Interest Costs in the Federal Budget

Federal interest as a share of outlays and of tax receipts, %

13.8%Data to Apr 2026
GovernmentForecast

US National Defense Spending (NIPA)

Federal national defense consumption expenditures and gross investment, $ billions, seasonally adjusted annual rate (BEA NIPA via FRED FDEFX).

1,190Data to Apr 2026
GovernmentForecast

U.S. Defense Spending

National defense spending as a share of GDP, %

3.7%Data to Apr 2026
GovernmentForecast

United States · Budget Balance · % GDP

General government net lending (+) or borrowing (−) as a percentage of GDP, the United States.

−7.3Data to Dec 2025

Cookies

We only use essential cookies to keep you signed in and remember your theme. No analytics, no tracking, no ads. See the Privacy Policy for the full read.