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PCE Inflation, the Fed’s Measure
PCE price index and core PCE, change from a year earlier, %
Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.
PCE prices · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days
Core PCE · Continuation · the recent trend, flattening · 30 days
Dashed: the projection from the latest reading. Shaded: the range about two in three outcomes land in. A projection, not a promise.
The Federal Reserve’s inflation target is set in terms of the PCE price index.
The inflation measure the Federal Reserve targets. It covers a broader basket than CPI and adjusts more quickly when people switch what they buy.
What this chart reads
- PCE Price Indexas “PCE prices”behindlatest 2026-08-01
- U.S. Core PCE Price Indexas “Core PCE”behindlatest 2026-08-01
Sources
PCE Price Index. Source: The Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes this series monthly as a seasonally adjusted chain-type index. Palanor pulls it from the FRED API at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis nightly.
U.S. Core PCE Price Index. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, series PCEPILFE ("Personal Consumption Expenditures Excluding Food and Energy (Chain-Type Price Index)"). Palanor pulls it from the FRED API (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) nightly. Bureau of Economic Analysis data are in the public domain.
Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.