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Yield Curve: 10-Year Minus 2-Year

Difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields, percentage points

0.31 pp on Oct 22, 2026+0.35 pp since Oct 2, 2006
YTD1y2y5y10y20yAll
ForecastOffContinuationForesight™
Show · 2 ▾
U.S. recessionsShades the months the NBER dates as recession. U.S. charts only.5-year rangeThe highest and lowest readings of the last five years, as a band. One-series charts only.High and lowMarks the highest and lowest readings in the window shown.
Current·Data to Oct 22, 2026

Plays the chart through its history. Pauses are where the data set a record or moved most.

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Below zero, the curve is inverted: short-term rates sit above long-term rates.

The slope of the Treasury curve. Inversions, when the line dips below zero, have come before most U.S. recessions, though with long and varying lags.

What this chart reads

Sources

Treasury Curve · 2s10s Spread. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury, Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates (home.treasury.gov), read directly from Treasury's published file each business day. A work of the U.S. Government, in the public domain (17 U.S.C. §105). Palanor computes the spread (10 Yr − 2 Yr). FRED's T10Y2Y is computed from the same Treasury yields.

Charts are drawn from Palanor's signal library and recomputed from source data on every view. Transformations (changes, indexing, year-on-year rates) are Palanor's.

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