Country Dossiers · method
Country Posture
Country Posture describes what an economy is doing on three axes. It is not a rating and it never ranks countries: no Palanor surface sorts countries by it. The method below was fixed on 2026-10-21, before any reading or back-test was computed, and an axis shows a score only if it passes the test that was fixed with it. An axis that does not pass shows its inputs and the reason.
The three axes
| Axis | 0 means | 100 means | Stages | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | slowing | gaining | Slowing · Steady · Gaining | Inputs only |
| Resilience | thin buffers | deep buffers | Thin buffers · Moderate buffers · Deep buffers | Scores shown |
| Pressure | low pressure | high pressure | Low · Moderate · High | Inputs only |
Inputs
World Bank WDI and WGI (CC BY 4.0), the OECD and UCDP (CC BY 4.0). No IMF World Economic Outlook data. A − means a higher value pulls the axis down.
Momentum
| Real GDP growth | + | 30% | World Bank WDI · NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG |
| Growth against its three-year average | + | 20% | World Bank WDI · NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG |
| Change in unemployment | − | 20% | World Bank WDI (ILO modelled) · SL.UEM.TOTL.ZS |
| Change in the employment rate | + | 10% | World Bank WDI (ILO modelled) · SL.EMP.TOTL.SP.ZS |
| Export volume growth | + | 20% | World Bank WDI (UNCTAD) · TX.QTY.MRCH.XD.WD |
| OECD leading indicator (where held) | + | 20% | OECD |
Resilience
| Interest as a share of revenue | − | 20% | World Bank WDI (IMF GFS) · GC.XPN.INTP.RV.ZS · may use a value up to 1 year old |
| Budget balance | + | 20% | World Bank WDI (IMF GFS) · GC.NLD.TOTL.GD.ZS · may use a value up to 1 year old |
| Reserves, months of imports | + | 20% | World Bank WDI (IMF IFS) · FI.RES.TOTL.MO · may use a value up to 1 year old |
| Current account | + | 15% | World Bank WDI (IMF BOP) · BN.CAB.XOKA.GD.ZS · may use a value up to 1 year old |
| Governance (WGI mean) | + | 25% | World Bank WGI · GOV_WGI_GE.EST, GOV_WGI_PV.EST… · may use a value up to 2 years old |
| External debt (where held) | − | 15% | World Bank IDS · DT.DOD.DECT.GN.ZS · may use a value up to 1 year old |
Pressure
| Inflation | + | 25% | World Bank WDI (IMF IFS) · FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG |
| Change in inflation | + | 15% | World Bank WDI (IMF IFS) · FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG |
| Currency move against the dollar | + | 20% | World Bank WDI (IMF IFS) · PA.NUS.FCRF |
| Conflict deaths per million | + | 15% | UCDP GED |
| Political stability | − | 10% | World Bank WGI · GOV_WGI_PV.EST · may use a value up to 2 years old |
| Private credit, three-year change | + | 15% | World Bank WDI (IMF IFS) · FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS · may use a value up to 1 year old |
| Bond spread over U.S. Treasuries (where held) | + | 15% | OECD Economic Outlook |
Inflation is read against the country’s own history and every other economy’s, not against its central bank’s target: Palanor does not yet hold a dated record of every country’s target, and a wrong target would be worse than none.
Scoring
- Each input is placed against the country’s own last 30 years (at least 8 values) and against every economy the World Bank reports that year (at least 40). The two percentiles are averaged; if only one exists, it is used.
- An axis is the weighted mean of the inputs it has. It is published only when the inputs it has carry at least 70% of its core weight and number at least three. Otherwise it is withheld, with the reason, and never filled with a default.
- Stages move only when the score clears the threshold (35 or 65) by five points, so a reading near a line doesn’t flip back and forth.
- A reading for a year is first available when the World Bank publishes that year, usually in the middle of the next.
The back-test
Each axis was tested on what followed in the next two years, 1996 to 2022, in two halves (1996–2009 and 2010–2022). An axis passes when, in both halves, its AUC is at least 0.60 and at least as good as two simple baselines (the event already happening, and the single most obvious input on its own), with at least 30 events. Readings use only data for that year and earlier; World Bank values are today’s revised figures, not what was known at the time.
- Recession (growth below zero within two years)
- Growth slowdown (2+ points below its recent average next year)
- Currency stress (25%+ depreciation, accelerating, within two years)
- Conflict escalation (deaths at least double, 100+, within two years)
| Axis | Half | Events | AUC | Persistence | One input | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Momentum | 1996–2009 | 590 of 2577 | 0.590 | 0.579 | 0.624 | AUC 0.590 below 0.60; AUC 0.590 below the single-input baseline (0.624) |
| Momentum | 2010–2022 | 780 of 2619 | 0.595 | 0.568 | 0.641 | AUC 0.595 below 0.60; AUC 0.595 below the single-input baseline (0.641) |
| Resilience | 1996–2009 | 62 of 1295 | 0.619 | 0.534 | 0.562 | pass |
| Resilience | 2010–2022 | 79 of 1601 | 0.645 | 0.534 | 0.527 | pass |
| Pressure | 1996–2009 | 257 of 2355 | 0.657 | 0.573 | 0.672 | AUC 0.657 below the single-input baseline (0.672) |
| Pressure | 2010–2022 | 265 of 2406 | 0.744 | 0.561 | 0.709 | pass |
Latest run 2026-10-22. The test re-runs weekly with the same rules.
Country comparisons on the Dossiers appear only where every country uses the same definition, and they say so. All Country Dossiers.