The Credit page (Credit, under The World in the menu) puts the credit picture in one place. Every chart is a live library chart: it opens to its data, its methodology and Palanor Foresight.
Credit Stress
A monthly reading of how stressed U.S. credit is, from seven public series: the Fed's corporate bond spread (GZ) and excess bond premium, the share of banks tightening business-loan standards, bank-loan and credit-card delinquency rates, bankruptcy and debt-acceleration 8-Ks, and going-concern filings. Each series is placed against its own history using only what was known at the time, the results are averaged, and the average is ranked against every earlier month (0–100).
The method and its back-test were written down before any result was computed. The score is shown only after the composite passes that test; until then the page shows the components only, with the reason. The components are always shown. Method and today's result: [Credit Stress methodology](https://palanor.com/methodology/credit-stress).
On 21 Oct 2026 the first version (credit-stress-v1) failed its back-test. Its method stays as registered. A v2 will be pre-registered once CDS and NY Fed CMDI history reaches about a year. Until then the page shows the components only.
Corporate credit from SEC filings
- Maturity walls. Each S&P 500 and Russell 1000 company's scheduled debt principal by year (next 12 months, years 2–5, after 5), from its latest annual report, summed for the index.
- Interest coverage. Operating income divided by interest over the last four quarters: the median, and the share of companies below 1.5× and 1×.
- Leverage. Net debt (debt less cash) divided by operating income plus depreciation: the median, and the share above 4×.
- Hyperscaler commitments. For Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta and Oracle (and Nvidia and CoreWeave): leases signed but not yet commenced, purchase obligations, debt due within a year and cash. These are the data-center commitments that sit outside the balance sheet. Each company reports them differently, so compare a company with its own history first.
Every quarterly reading uses only what had been filed by that date, as first reported. Financial companies are left out of coverage and leverage. Index membership before late September 2026 is today's list carried back, so older readings carry survivorship bias. Company pages show the same figures for one company: debt maturities, debt due against cash, and interest coverage.
Defaults and distress
Counts by month of 8-K filings for bankruptcy (Item 1.03), debt acceleration (Item 2.04), impairments (Item 2.06) and credit-agreement events, for every SEC filer, plus annual and quarterly reports carrying going-concern language. Company pages link each event to its filing. You can set an alert for a company's credit events in the Alerts center.
Banks and consumers
Problem banks and bank failures from the FDIC; industry charge-offs, reserves, margins and profitability from the FDIC's Quarterly Banking Profile; bank health by size from Call Reports; charge-off rates by loan type from the Fed; household debt and delinquency from the New York Fed; and new cards and auto loans by credit score from the CFPB.
What is not shown
Credit ratings. The rating agencies publish their rating histories as the SEC requires, but their terms do not allow reuse, so Palanor shows no ratings, rating changes or downgrade counts. Nothing on the Credit page is a credit rating or advice.
Sources: U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, Federal Reserve Board, FDIC, FFIEC, U.S. Courts and CFPB (public domain); Federal Reserve Bank of New York; IMF and OECD.
Related: [Private credit from BDC filings](/help/modules/private-credit) · [Alerts center](/help/modules/alerts-center)