Every signal chart can extend forward. The toggle under the chart picks how.
The modes
- Continuation. The recent trend, carried forward and allowed to flatten. No trend lasts, and a straight line extended forever was the least accurate forecast we tested.
- Palanor Foresight™. Palanor's forecast. It blends three reads: the recent trend, the signal's own habits (how it tends to return toward its usual level, and any yearly or day-of-week rhythm), and what the signals that move with this one in the lattice imply. How much each read counts is set per cadence by testing on held-out history, and whatever share has no measured edge is held at the last value. The label under the chart states the mix. When no related signal qualifies, or the lattice has no measured edge at that cadence, it says so and blends the trend and the signal's habits. On daily market prices (stocks, ETFs, crypto, currencies), nothing we tested beat the last price over 7 to 30 days, related signals included, so Foresight holds close to the last price there and the band shows the range. The label says so.
- Adoption curve. Offered only on signals that measure adoption (downloads, users, access), and only when an S-curve fits the history closely, a ceiling can be identified, and the curve beat simpler forecasts on held-out history. On most signals you will not see it.
Historical Pattern used to be a separate mode. Since September 2026 it is part of Foresight rather than a choice beside it; studies saved with it open on Foresight.
In a Study, every series on the chart gets its own forecast, drawn in the Study's scale (a z-score Study shows each forecast as a z-score, using that series' own average and spread). A series the engine has stopped projecting because it has not beaten "no change" says Foresight held at the last value in the legend. A series that cannot be forecast says No forecast and why, for example a series that moves in steps.
The line and the faint lines
The dashed line is the expected path. It is smooth because the particular up and down days ahead cannot be predicted, and drawing them would claim knowledge nobody has.
The faint lines are possible paths: a few simulated tracks inside the band, so you can see what the ride could look like. They are possible, not predicted. The shaded band is meant to hold about two thirds of outcomes.
What moves the line
Under the chart, each forecast lists what moves it between now and the horizon, in the signal's own units: the trend, the pull toward the usual level, a yearly or weekly rhythm, and the related signals Foresight reads. The pieces add up to the projected change.
For monthly and quarterly signals the related signals are leading signals: series whose 12-month or 3-month change, read up to a year before this signal's next print, cut the error of that print in a walk-forward test over the last 36 prints, beyond what the trend already carried. Each is listed with the months it leads by and the share of error it removed, and that share is its weight. A signal with no leading signal that passed the test reads from its own history alone, and the label says so. Foresight is included with every Palanor account, free Reader accounts too. Related signals are named on Researcher plans and in workspaces.
How far ahead
Daily and monthly signals project 30 days, quarterly signals a year, and annual signals three years. On quarterly and annual data the modelled move is scaled back to what held up on past data, and the label says so.
Track record and disclosures
Every forecast is logged when it is made and scored when its date arrives; the results are public at palanor.com/foresight/accuracy. Forecasts are statistical projections, not predictions of fact and not financial advice. The Forecast disclosures at palanor.com/foresight/disclosures set out the terms.