Palanor takes a daily snapshot of every active scenario at 06:30 UTC. Each snapshot records the scenario's probability, impact score, and confidence at that moment. Together, the snapshots form the source of truth for how each scenario has moved over time.
The History tile (on every scenario page)
The History tile replaces the old Narrative Preview. It shows probability over time as a compact bar chart — pick the window in the top right (14 days, 30 days, 90 days, or all). The latest reading is called out on the right.
The History Log (full table)
Click **History Log — full table** under the chart to open the source-of-truth table. Every row is a daily snapshot. Columns:
- **Date** — Snapshot date (UTC)
- **Probability** — The weighted probability for that day
- **Δ** — Day-over-day change in probability
- **Impact** — The signed Impact Score for that day
- **Δ** — Day-over-day change in impact
- **Confidence** — Confidence band at that snapshot
- **Snapshot** — Timestamp the snapshot was written
The table is read-only by design. This is the record — no editing, no overwrites. If you want to change a number, change the underlying signals; the next snapshot will reflect it.
When does the first snapshot land?
If your scenario is new, the first snapshot lands tomorrow at 06:30 UTC. Existing scenarios were backfilled with 30 days of synthetic history anchored to their current probability so the chart is meaningful immediately.