Progressive Corporation · Earnings release

NEWS RELEASE

The Progressive Corporation

Company Contact:

300 North Commons Blvd.

Douglas S. Constantine

http://www.progressive.com

investor_relations@progressive.com

PROGRESSIVE REPORTS SEPTEMBER RESULTS

MAYFIELD VILLAGE, OHIO -- October 15, 2025 -- The Progressive Corporation (NYSE:PGR) today reported the following results for the month and quarter ended September 30, 2025:

September

Quarter

(millions, except per share amounts and ratios; unaudited)

Change

Change

Net premiums written

$

$

8

%

$

$

%

Net premiums earned

$

$

9

%

$

$

%

Net income

$

$

%

$

$

%

Per share available to common shareholders

$

$

%

$

$

%

Total pretax net realized gains (losses) on securities

$

$

%

$

$

2

%

Combined ratio

pts.

pts.

Average diluted equivalent common shares

0

%

0

%

(thousands; unaudited)

% Change

Policies in Force

Personal Lines

Agency – auto

Direct – auto

Special lines

8

Property

6

Total Personal Lines

Commercial Lines

6

Companywide

Progressive offers personal and commercial insurance throughout the United States. Our Personal Lines business writes insurance for personal vehicles (auto and special lines products) and personal property insurance for homeowners and renters. Our Commercial Lines business writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and commercial property insurance predominantly for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry.

- 1 -

THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENT

(millions)

(unaudited)

Current Month

Comments on Monthly Results1

Net premiums written

$

Revenues:

Net premiums earned

$

Investment income

Net realized gains (losses) on securities:

Net realized gains (losses) on security sales

2

Net holding period gains (losses) on securities

Total net realized gains (losses) on securities

Fees and other revenues

Service revenues

Total revenues

Expenses:

Losses and loss adjustment expenses

Policy acquisition costs

Other underwriting expenses

Policyholder credit expense

Investment expenses

3

Service expenses

Interest expense

Total expenses

Income before income taxes

Provision for income taxes

Net income

Other comprehensive income (loss):

Change in total net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities

Total comprehensive income (loss)

$

1 See the Monthly Commentary at the end of this release for additional discussion. For a description of our financial reporting and accounting policies as it applies to information contained throughout this release, see Note 1 to our 2024 audited consolidated financial statements included in our 2024 Shareholders’ Report, which can be found at www.progressive.com/annualreport.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

COMPREHENSIVE INCOME STATEMENTS

For the year-to-date periods ended September 30,

(millions)

(unaudited)

Year-to-Date

Net premiums written

$

$

Revenues:

Net premiums earned

$

$

Investment income

Net realized gains (losses) on securities:

Net realized gains (losses) on security sales

Net holding period gains (losses) on securities

Total net realized gains (losses) on securities

Fees and other revenues

Service revenues

Total revenues

Expenses:

Losses and loss adjustment expenses

Policy acquisition costs

Other underwriting expenses

Policyholder credit expense

0

Investment expenses

Service expenses

Interest expense

Total expenses

Income before income taxes

Provision for income taxes

Net income

Other comprehensive income (loss):

Changes in:

Total net unrealized gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities

Net unrealized losses on forecasted transactions

1

0

Other comprehensive income (loss)

Total comprehensive income (loss)

$

$

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

COMPUTATION OF NET INCOME AND COMPREHENSIVE INCOME PER SHARE

&

INVESTMENT RESULTS

For the month and year-to-date periods ended September 30,

(millions – except per share amounts)

(unaudited)

The following table sets forth the computation of per share results:

September

Year-to-Date

Net income

$

$

$

Less: Preferred share dividends and other

0

0

Net income available to common shareholders

$

$

$

Per common share:

Basic

$

$

$

Diluted

$

$

$

Comprehensive income (loss)

$

$

$

Less: Preferred share dividends and other

0

0

Comprehensive income (loss) attributable to common shareholders

$

$

$

Per common share:

Diluted

$

$

$

Average common shares outstanding - Basic

Net effect of dilutive stock-based compensation

Total average equivalent common shares - Diluted

The following table sets forth the investment results for the period:

September

Year-to-Date

Fully taxable equivalent (FTE) total return:

Fixed-income securities

Common stocks

Total portfolio

Pretax annualized investment income book yield

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

($ in millions)

(unaudited)

Current Month

Personal Lines Business

Commercial

Vehicles

Lines

Companywide

Agency

Direct

Property

Total

Business1

Total

Net Premiums Written

$

$

$

$

$

$

% Growth in NPW

8%

7%

(7)%

8%

Net Premiums Earned

$

$

$

$

$

$

% Growth in NPE

8%

6%

(4)%

9%

GAAP Ratios

Loss/LAE ratio

Expense ratio

2

2

2

Combined ratio

2

2

2

Net catastrophe loss ratio3

Actuarial Adjustments4

Reserve Decrease/(Increase)

Prior accident years

$

Current accident year

Calendar year actuarial adjustment

$

$

$

(4)

$

$

9

$

Prior Accident Years Development

Favorable/(Unfavorable)

Actuarial adjustment

$

All other development

Total development

$

Calendar year loss/LAE ratio

Accident year loss/LAE ratio

1 The decrease in net premiums written was primarily attributable to our transportation network company (TNC) business, driven by a decrease in the monthly adjustment for projected mileage, which is the basis for computing premiums. Excluding all TNC business, our total Commercial Lines net premiums written would have decreased 3% for the month.

2 Included in both the expense ratio and the combined ratio is 17.8 points of Florida policyholder credits in the Personal Lines vehicles agency channel and 15.9 points in the Personal Lines vehicles direct channel. Excluding these policyholder credits, the total Personal Lines business would have reported an expense ratio of 20.4 and combined ratio of 86.5. See the Monthly Commentary at the end of this release for additional discussion.

3 Represents catastrophe losses incurred during the period, including development on prior events and the impact of reinsurance, if any, as a percent of net premiums earned.

4 Represents adjustments solely based on our normally scheduled actuarial reviews. For our Personal Lines property business, the actuarial reserving methodology includes changes to catastrophe losses, while the reviews in our personal and commercial vehicle businesses do not include catastrophes.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

SUPPLEMENTAL INFORMATION

For the year-to-date period ended September 30, 2025

($ in millions)

(unaudited)

Year-to-Date

Personal Lines Business

Commercial

Vehicles

Lines

Companywide

Agency

Direct

Property

Total

Business

Total

Net Premiums Written

$

$

$

$

$

$

% Growth in NPW

2%

(1)%

Net Premiums Earned

$

$

$

$

$

$

% Growth in NPE

6%

3%

GAAP Ratios

Loss/LAE ratio

Expense ratio

Combined ratio

Net catastrophe loss ratio1

Actuarial Adjustments2

Reserve Decrease/(Increase)

Prior accident years

$

Current accident year

Calendar year actuarial adjustment

$

$

$

$

$

$

Prior Accident Years Development

Favorable/(Unfavorable)

Actuarial adjustment

$

All other development

Total development

$

Calendar year loss/LAE ratio

Accident year loss/LAE ratio

1 Represents catastrophe losses incurred during the year, including development on prior events and the impact of reinsurance, as a percent of net premiums earned.

2 Represents adjustments solely based on our normally scheduled actuarial reviews. For our Personal Lines property business, the actuarial reserving methodology includes changes to catastrophe losses, while the reviews in our personal and commercial vehicle businesses do not include catastrophes.

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THE PROGRESSIVE CORPORATION AND SUBSIDIARIES

BALANCE SHEET AND OTHER INFORMATION

(millions - except per share amounts and common shares repurchased)

(unaudited)

CONDENSED GAAP BALANCE SHEET:

Investments, at fair value:

Available-for-sale securities:

Fixed maturities1 (amortized cost: $88,247)

$

Short-term investments (amortized cost: $1,515)

Total available-for-sale securities

Equity securities:

Nonredeemable preferred stocks (cost: $454)

Common equities (cost: $808)

Total equity securities

Total investments2, 3

Net premiums receivable

Reinsurance recoverables (including $3,813 on unpaid loss and LAE reserves)

Deferred acquisition costs

Other assets

Total assets

$

Unearned premiums

$

Loss and loss adjustment expense reserves

Other liabilities2, 4

Debt

Total liabilities

Shareholders’ equity

Total liabilities and shareholders’ equity

$

Common shares outstanding

Common shares repurchased in the current month

Average cost per common share

$

Book value per common share

$

Trailing 12-month return on average common shareholders’ equity

Net income

%

Comprehensive income

%

Net unrealized pretax gains (losses) on fixed-maturity securities

$

Increase (decrease) from the previous month

$

Increase (decrease) from December 2024

$

Debt-to-total capital ratio

%

Fixed-income portfolio duration

Weighted average credit quality

AA- .

1 As of September 30, 2025, we held certain hybrid securities and recognized a change in fair value of $13 million as a realized gain during the period we held these securities.

2 At September 30, 2025, we had $523 million of net unsettled security transactions classified in “other liabilities.”

3 Includes $4.9 billion, net of unsettled security transactions, of investments in a consolidated, non-insurance, subsidiary of the holding company.

4 Includes a $950 million liability related to Florida policyholder credits accrued in September 2025. See the Monthly Commentary at the end of this release for additional discussion.

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Monthly Commentary

•Since Florida insurance reform was enacted in early 2023, we have seen lower loss costs on certain types of personal auto accident claims and favorable reserve development, and we have experienced strong profitability in our Florida personal auto business. Despite actions to lower rates in the last year, it is probable that our personal auto profit in Florida for the 2023 to 2025 period will exceed the statutory profit limit that a Florida statute imposes on the profit that any insurance group can earn on personal auto insurance over any three-calendar-year period. In such event, we would need to credit any profit above the limit to all Florida personal auto policyholders active at December 31, 2025.

As a result, in September 2025, we recorded a $950 million policyholder credit expense, which represents our current estimate of the profit we will earn on the three-calendar-year period ending December 31, 2025, in excess of the permitted profit limit. The estimated liability will continue to be refined through the end of the fourth quarter 2025, given the continuing exposure to potential significant storm activity through the Atlantic hurricane season, which continues into late November 2025, and the other factors that impact reserve development through the first quarter of 2026 on losses for applicable accident years, as described in our 2025 Second Quarter Form 10-Q. In early 2026, we expect to provide credits to policyholders active at December 31, 2025. As of September 30, 2025, we had approximately 2.7 million personal auto policyholders active in Florida.

Events

Our third quarter Investor Relations conference call is currently scheduled to be held on Tuesday, November 4, 2025, at 9:30 a.m. eastern time. This conference call, which will consist of both a conference call and audio-only webcast, is scheduled to last 60 minutes and will consist of a question and answer session with Tricia Griffith, our CEO, and John Sauerland, our CFO. We plan to file our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q with the SEC on Monday, November 3, 2025. If the dates of our events, which are always subject to change, are rescheduled, we will announce the change in a press release as soon as practical and publish it on our investor website. Details regarding access to the conference call, or any event changes, will be available at: https://investors.progressive.com/events.

We plan to release October results on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, before the market opens.

About Progressive

Progressive Insurance® makes it easy to understand, buy and use car insurance, home insurance, and other protection needs. Progressive offers choices so consumers can reach us however it’s most convenient for them — online at progressive.com, by phone at 1-800-PROGRESSIVE, via the Progressive mobile app, or in-person with a local agent.

Progressive provides insurance for personal and commercial autos and trucks, motorcycles, boats, recreational vehicles, and homes; it is the second largest personal auto insurer in the country, a leading seller of commercial auto, motorcycle, and boat insurance, and one of the top 15 homeowners insurance carriers.

Founded in 1937, Progressive continues its long history of offering shopping tools and services that save customers time and money, like Name Your Price®, Snapshot®, and HomeQuote Explorer®.

The Common Shares of The Progressive Corporation, the Mayfield Village, Ohio-based holding company, trade publicly at NYSE: PGR.

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Regulation FD Disclosure Outlets

The Company disseminates information to the public about the Company, its products, services and other matters through various outlets in order to achieve broad, non-exclusionary, distribution of information to the public. These outlets include the Company’s website (progressive.com) and its investor relations website (investors.progressive.com). We encourage investors and others to review the information the Company makes public through these outlets, as such information distributed through these outlets may be considered to be material information.

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Safe Harbor Statement Under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995: Investors are cautioned that certain statements in this report not based upon historical fact are forward-looking statements as defined in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements often use words such as “estimate,” “expect,” “intend,” “plan,” “believe,” “goal,” “target,” “anticipate,” “will,” “could,” “likely,” “may,” “should,” and other words and terms of similar meaning, or are tied to future periods, in connection with a discussion of future operating or financial performance. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance, are based on current expectations and projections about future events, and are subject to certain risks, assumptions and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those discussed herein. These risks and uncertainties include, without limitation, uncertainties related to:

•our ability to underwrite and price risks accurately and to charge adequate rates to policyholders;

•our ability to establish accurate loss reserves;

•the impact of severe weather, other catastrophe events, and climate change;

•the effectiveness of our reinsurance programs and the continued availability of reinsurance and performance by reinsurers;

•the secure and uninterrupted operation of the systems, facilities, and business functions and the operation of various third-party systems that are critical to our business;

•the impacts of a security breach or other attack involving our technology systems or the systems of one or more of our vendors;

•our ability to maintain a recognized and trusted brand and reputation;

•whether we innovate effectively and respond to our competitors’ initiatives;

•whether we effectively manage complexity as we develop and deliver products and customer experiences;

•the highly competitive nature of property-casualty insurance markets;

•whether we adjust claims accurately;

•compliance with complex and changing laws and regulations;

•the impact of misconduct or fraudulent acts by employees, agents, and third parties to our business and/or exposure to regulatory assessments;

•our ability to attract, develop, and retain talent and maintain appropriate staffing levels;

•litigation challenging our business practices, and those of our competitors and other companies;

•the success of our business strategy and efforts to acquire or develop new products or enter into new areas of business and our ability to navigate the related risks;

•how intellectual property rights affect our competitiveness and our business operations;

•the success of our development and use of new technology and our ability to navigate the related risks;

•the performance of our fixed-income and equity investment portfolios;

•the impact on our investment returns and strategies from regulations and societal pressures relating to environmental, social, governance and other public policy matters;

•our continued ability to access our cash accounts and/or convert investments into cash on favorable terms;

•the impact if one or more parties with which we enter into significant contracts or transact business fail to perform;

•legal restrictions on our insurance subsidiaries’ ability to pay dividends to The Progressive Corporation;

•our ability to obtain capital when necessary to support our business, our financial condition, and potential growth;

•evaluations and ratings by credit rating and other rating agencies;

•the variable nature of our common share dividend policy;

•whether our investments in certain tax-advantaged projects generate the anticipated returns;

•the impact from not managing to short-term earnings expectations in light of our goal to maximize the long-term value of the enterprise;

•the impacts of epidemics, pandemics, or other widespread health risks; and

•other matters described from time to time in our releases and publications, and in our periodic reports and other documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission, including, without limitation, the Risk Factors section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ending December 31, 2024.

Any forward-looking statements are made only as of the date presented. Except as required by applicable law, we undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or developments or otherwise.

In addition, investors should be aware that accounting principles generally accepted in the United States prescribe when a company may reserve for particular risks, including litigation exposures. Accordingly, results for a given reporting period could be significantly affected if and when we establish reserves for one or more contingencies. Also, our regular reserve reviews may result in adjustments of varying magnitude as additional information regarding claims activity becomes known. Reported results, therefore, may be volatile in certain accounting periods.