South Africa Credit-to-GDP Gap

## What this measures

How far South Africa's private credit-to-GDP ratio sits above or below its long-run trend, in percentage points (the BIS one-sided trend, as used for Basel III).

## Why it matters

It is the early-warning indicator Basel III uses to set countercyclical capital buffers: large positive gaps have preceded banking crises.

## How to read it

Above +2 points, Basel III guidance starts to build a buffer; above +10, the maximum. It read −4.3 points in the first quarter of 2026: credit is below its long-run trend, as it has been since 2021.

## What it does not say

It is a statistical trend, sensitive to the start of the sample, and a large gap is a warning, not a forecast.

## Source

Bank for International Settlements, Credit-to-GDP gaps, series `WS_CREDIT_GAP/Q.ZA.P.A.C` (stats.bis.org). Palanor reads the full series every day. Source: BIS. Used under the BIS terms for statistics: reuse is unrestricted with the BIS cited as the source, and the statistics carry no additional charge in Palanor.