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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory98.50.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
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labor

U.S. Real Average Hourly Earnings, Production and Nonsupervisory

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9.881982–84 USD per hour

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Methodology

## What this measures

Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees on private payrolls (about four in five private workers), adjusted for consumer prices (CPI-W) and expressed in 1982–84 dollars.

## Why it matters

It is the longest-running official measure of whether ordinary workers' pay keeps up with prices, with history back to 1964, and it leaves out managers, whose pay moves the all-employee average.

## How to read it

Read the 12-month change: positive means pay is outpacing inflation. Compare it with the all-private-employees series.

## What it does not say

It is an average, so shifts in the mix of jobs move it (in 2020 low-paid jobs disappeared first and the average jumped). It excludes benefits.

## Source

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Real Earnings release, series CES0500000032, pulled from the BLS public data API. BLS data are in the public domain; source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

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