Brazil Expected Inflation, Next 12 Months (Focus)

## What this measures

The median forecast of consumer price inflation (IPCA) over the next 12 months from the central bank's Focus survey of about a hundred banks and analysts, smoothed series.

## Why it matters

The central bank sets the Selic rate against these expectations; when they drift above target, rates rise.

## How to read it

It was 4.65% on 25 September 2026. Brazil's inflation target is 3%.

## What it does not say

It is a forecast by market economists, not by the central bank.

## Source

Banco Central do Brasil, Focus survey, ExpectativasMercadoInflacao12Meses (IPCA, smoothed, median). Palanor reads it every day. Contains information from Banco Central do Brasil's open data, made available under the Open Database License (ODbL).