Canada Economy Health

## What this measures

One reading of Canadian economic health built from eight official series: real GDP growth (20%), the unemployment rate (15%, lower is better), the prime-age employment rate (10%), how far core inflation sits from 2% (15%, closer is better), the household debt service ratio (10%, lower is better), the Bank of Canada business activity indicator (10%), export growth (10%) and housing starts (10%). Each is placed as a percentile of its own monthly history since January 1998; the composite is the weighted average, rescaled so 0 is the weakest month in the record and 100 the strongest.

## Why it matters

No single series says whether the Canadian economy is doing well. This puts growth, jobs, prices, household strain, business mood, trade and housing on one scale, measured against Canada's own record rather than a recent baseline.

## How to read it

Around 50 is an ordinary month. As of October 2026 the weakest month in the record is June 2009 (0) and spring 2020 sits near it (about 11). The strongest is May 2022 (100): growth, jobs and exports were then measured against the pandemic year, and high inflation pulled the reading down but not enough to offset that. The anchors move if a new extreme arrives. A reading is published when at least 75% of the weight has data (the business indicator starts in 2017 and its weight is redistributed before that). Components may be up to two months old for monthly series and two quarters for quarterly ones.

## What it does not say

It is not a forecast and not a Custom Index. Percentiles use the full record, so the whole history is re-expressed each time data arrive. Export growth is in current dollars, so commodity prices move it. Each component's own signal is on the platform for the detail.

## Source

Computed daily by Palanor from Statistics Canada (tables 36-10-0434, 14-10-0287, 18-10-0256, 11-10-0065, 12-10-0011), CMHC housing starts via Statistics Canada (34-10-0158), and the Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (Valet). Adapted from Statistics Canada; this does not constitute an endorsement by Statistics Canada of this product. Source: CMHC; Bank of Canada.