Canada 10-Year Minus 2-Year Yield Spread

## What this measures

The 10-year Government of Canada yield (canada.gov.yield_10y) minus the 2-year yield (canada.gov.yield_2y): the slope of the Canadian yield curve.

## Why it matters

An inverted curve (negative spread) has preceded Canadian and U.S. recessions; it signals markets expect rates to fall because growth will weaken.

## How to read it

Below zero is inverted. The re-steepening after a long inversion has historically come close to the start of a downturn.

## What it does not say

It is a market signal, not a forecast, and its lead time varies by years.

## Source

Bank of Canada, Valet API, series BD.CDN.10YR.DQ.YLD ("Benchmark bond yield, 10-year"). Palanor pulls it from the Bank's Valet service every weekday. Source: Bank of Canada. Content obtained from the Bank of Canada website; changes are noted where Palanor computes from it. Palanor subtracts the 2-year yield (BD.CDN.2YR.DQ.YLD) on each day both are published.