China's share of US goods imports (12 months)

## What this measures

Imports from China as a share of all US goods imports, trailing 12 months. This is the cleanest single read on US–China decoupling.

## Background

Σ12 US imports from China ÷ Σ12 US imports from the world × 100 (Census via FRED IMPCH, IMP0004). The world series is seasonally adjusted and the China series is not; twelve-month sums remove most of the difference. Some of the decline since 2018 is trade rerouted through Vietnam and Mexico rather than true decoupling. Computed monthly by /api/cron/fred-composites.

## Why it matters

The share shows how reliant US supply chains remain on Chinese production and how quickly that exposure is changing. A falling share signals shifting trade patterns that may require new supplier relationships, different logistics arrangements, and revised assessments of geopolitical risk in procurement decisions.

## How to read it

A rising share means Chinese goods account for more of what the US imports; a falling share means less. Compare the current level to historical ranges to see whether the relationship is deepening, stable, or unwinding.

## What it does not say

The measure does not distinguish trade that has been rerouted through third countries from genuine shifts in production. It reflects goods trade only and says nothing about services, investment flows, or the origin of components within finished products.

## Source

Palanor computes this series from US Census Bureau trade data published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Palanor pulls the underlying series from the FRED API nightly.