Government Stakes (composite)

## What this measures

How the shares of the listed companies in which the U.S. government holds an equity stake have moved since the stakes were announced: an equal-weight price index, daily. A Palanor calculation; not a Palanor Custom Index.

## Why it matters

Since mid-2025 the U.S. government has taken equity in companies it funds: shares or warrants in exchange for CHIPS Act grants and research awards, preferred stock from the Department of War, warrants for loan changes, and a golden share in a merger. That makes the government a shareholder in a set of listed companies, and the market's reading of those companies a measure of how the stakes are faring.

## How to read it

100 = the close on July 10, 2025. Above 100, the basket is worth more than when the stakes began; the companion series composite.government_stakes.vs_sp500 compares it with the S&P 500 over the same days. Early readings rest on one or two companies, so they swing more than later ones; each point carries the member count.

## How it is built

The members are the U.S.-listed companies in Palanor's government_equity_stakes table where the stake is in the listed company itself: Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, Trilogy Metals, USA Rare Earth, GlobalFoundries, D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, Infleqtion, Quantinuum, Aeluma and The Elmet Group. A company enters at the close of the day its stake was first announced (the first close after that day if markets were shut or the shares were not yet listed), so the announcement-day move is not counted. Each day's change is the plain average of the members' daily price changes (equal weight, rebalanced daily; price only, no dividends). The index is 100 at the close of July 10, 2025, the first announcement (MP Materials); until the next stake it holds one company. Stakes held in an unlisted unit (L3Harris's Missile Solutions business, IBM's Anderon quantum foundry), in a company listed outside the U.S. (Korea Zinc), or in private companies are in the table but not in the index. Letters of intent count from their announcement, like signed deals.

## What it does not say

It is not the value of the government's holdings: it ignores how many shares, warrants or preferred shares the government holds, their terms and prices, and the money paid in. Equal weight lets small, volatile companies move it as much as Intel. It says nothing about whether the policy is good or bad, or why any share moved.

## Source

Palanor calculation from end-of-day closing prices from a licensed market data provider. Stakes: federal releases (Commerce, NIST CHIPS, Department of War, Energy, White House), company releases and SEC filings, linked in the government_equity_stakes table. Recomputed daily after the market close.