Momentum: AI drug discovery (change in a year of private money, Palanor Emerging Spaces)

## What this measures

The percent change in the theme's trailing-four-quarter money from one quarter to the next: 100 × (this quarter's four-quarter total ÷ last quarter's − 1).

## Why it matters

The colour on the Emerging Spaces map: whether money into a theme is speeding up or slowing down.

## How it is made

Palanor's Emerging Spaces taxonomy has 44 themes, fixed in a committed file before any total was computed (docs/emerging-spaces/PREREGISTRATION.md). Each company that raised venture-like money on Form D since 2016 gets one theme or none: from Palanor's one-line description of the company where it holds one (companies that raised about $30 million or more), otherwise from its name, by whole-word rules; companies with $50 million or more since 2016 are checked by a model given the description and the theme list, and that answer is final. Venture-like means equity sold under Rule 506 by a U.S. private operating company (funds, deal vehicles, banks, real estate, oil and gas and SEC reporting companies left out). A hand check of 60 companies drawn at random (seeded) under these rules found the assigned theme right for 49 of 60 (82%): 17 of 20 model-checked companies, 14 of 20 ruled from a description and 18 of 20 ruled from the name. Weighted by where the money is, about 84% of the money sits in correctly themed companies. Momentum is computed only when the four quarters before had money.

## How to read it

The series starts in Q1 2017 at 0.0%. The latest reading, for Q3 2026, is 20.0%. The high is 90.9% (Q3 2023) and the low -42.4% (Q2 2026). Above zero, the latest year of raising is bigger than the year to the quarter before. A quarter that drops a large round from a year earlier swings momentum down even if this quarter was busy.

## What it does not say

Coverage is partial: a company with a plain name and no description is in no theme, so the totals are lower bounds. One theme per company. Form D money is what companies report selling, not round sizes from the press, and late or missing filings are not counted.

## Source

Palanor calculation (Palanor Emerging Spaces) from SEC Form D data sets (U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission; public domain).