High-Propensity Business Applications (U.S.)

## What this measures

Business applications (requests for an IRS Employer Identification Number) that the Census Bureau judges likely to become businesses with payroll: corporations, applications that plan to hire, give a first wages-paid date, or come from industries such as manufacturing and retail. U.S. total, seasonally adjusted, monthly since July 2004.

## Why it matters

All applications (fred_babatotalsaus) include many that never hire anyone; the high-propensity subset is the closer lead on new employer businesses, about a year before they show up in payroll counts.

## How to read it

Compare with all applications: the gap widened after 2020 as applications without plans to hire surged. Monthly moves of a few percent are common.

## What it does not say

An application is intent, not a business: many high-propensity applications never hire. Applications are not comparable with Canada's openings or U.S. establishment births.

## Source

U.S. Census Bureau, Business Formation Statistics (BAHBATOTALSAUS), via FRED. Public domain.