1-Year Treasury Yield

## What this measures

The yield on U.S. Treasury securities at a constant maturity of one year, in percent per year, daily from 2 January 1962, read off the Treasury's fitted par yield curve. It read 4.46% on 6 October 2026.

## Why it matters

The one-year yield is the market's average expected policy rate over the next twelve months, with less term premium than the two-year. It is the tenor that moves first when the Fed's path is repriced, and the one most comparable to the year-end fed funds path implied by prediction markets (rates.fed_implied.yearend_2027).

## How to read it

Higher means the market expects higher policy rates over the coming year, or asks more to lend for it. Compare with the 2-year (fred_dgs2) and 10-year (fred_dgs10): the one-year sitting below the fed funds rate says cuts are priced.

## What it does not say

It is a point on a fitted curve, not the yield of one bill or note. It is nominal. Daily values are the Treasury's close; the series skips market holidays.

## Source

Federal Reserve Board, H.15 Selected Interest Rates, series DGS1 ("Market Yield on U.S. Treasury Securities at 1-Year Constant Maturity, Quoted on an Investment Basis"), via the FRED API (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis). Public domain; citation requested. Refreshed nightly by /api/cron/fred-sync.