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The Real Rate Index45.30.00Palanor: Inflation Pulse50.7+0.09Palanor: Geopolitical Stress60.0-2.16Palanor: Liquidity57.9-0.79Palanor: Capital Tightness47.5+0.91Palanor: Industrial Pulse70.10.00Palanor: AI Margin Compression53.4+0.29Palanor: Consumer Confidence48.6+0.50Palanor: US Dollar Strength46.50.00Palanor: Labor Heat63.2-0.01Palanor: Recession Vocabulary28.1+0.54Palanor: Uncertainty Index53.4+1.24Palanor: US Jobs Health40.30.00Palanor: Energy Transition37.0-0.52Palanor: Reshoring Sentiment22.8+0.54Palanor: AI Substitution28.4-0.24The Social Fabric Index45.70.00Palanor: Geopolitical Anxiety19.4-0.45Palanor: Quit Pressure37.6+0.42The Mania Index88.00.00The Palanor Index57.1-0.51Cost Disease Spread33.20.00Palanor: US vs China49.5-0.17Rise of Socialism Index40.8-0.26The Bubble Memory79.90.00Palanor: Steward Confidence50.8+0.13The Long Watch90.30.00The Reshoring Index55.2+0.00The Capital Return Index81.0-0.75The Discourse Index72.4+1.83The Hesitation Index30.8-6.58Palanor AI Inference Cost Index71.2-0.03The AI Capex Race Index78.4+1.36The Boardroom Index82.5-0.00The Layoff Cycle Index32.8-2.51Capital Deployment Posture Index62.3+1.26The Consumer Health Index41.7-2.96Labor Hours Composite44.40.00The Dollar Erosion Index66.6+0.14Palanor: Risk Appetite36.2+0.83
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macro

Economic Policy Uncertainty Index (US)

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175.19index

Methodology

## What this measures

How much the US press is writing about uncertainty over economic policy: fiscal, monetary, regulatory and trade. It combines newspaper coverage with the number of federal tax provisions set to expire and disagreement among economic forecasters.

## Why it matters

Policy uncertainty delays hiring and investment: firms wait to see the rules before committing capital. It is one of the few long, consistent measures of the policy side of turbulence.

## How to read it

100 is the 1985–2009 average. Peaks mark the 2008 crisis, the 2011 debt-ceiling standoff, the 2016 election and Brexit, March–April 2020, and the 2025 tariff announcements.

## What it does not say

It counts coverage, not consequences. A loud policy fight that changes nothing scores the same as a quiet one that changes everything.

## Source

Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis, policyuncertainty.com, via FRED (`USEPUINDXM`). CC BY 4.0. Cite: Baker, Bloom & Davis (2016), "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," *Quarterly Journal of Economics* 131(4).

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