Russia–Ukraine alignment (GDELT, daily)

## What this measures

This signal measures the mean Goldstein score of material events, aid, agreements, sanctions, seizures, force, between Russia and Ukraine, scaled from −1 (open conflict) to +1 (close cooperation). Only actions count, not statements, and each event gets equal weight regardless of wire-service repetition.

## Background

Mean Goldstein score of material events (actions, not statements) between Russia and Ukraine, ÷10.

Computed daily from GDELT's event export (data.gdeltproject.org/events). Only material events count: CAMEO QuadClass 2 (material cooperation: aid, agreements carried out, exchanges) and 4 (material conflict: sanctions, seizures, force, fighting), in either direction. Each event gets one vote, so wire-service repetition doesn't tilt the read. The mean Goldstein score is divided by 10 to give a −1 (open conflict) to +1 (close cooperation) scale. Days with fewer than five material events between the pair are skipped. Noisy day to day; read a 30-day average.

**Calibration.** Against Fan (2025)'s annual scores for US–China, US–Russia, Russia–Ukraine and Israel–Iran, 2019–2024: this series averages 0.08 above Fan's dynamic score, and the levels correlate at 0.78. Year-over-year changes agree only weakly (r = 0.30 over 20 pair-years). The two share the big moves (the Russia–Ukraine break, US–Russia after 2022) but not the year-to-year detail. An earlier construction that also counted statements and weighted by article count read 0.36 higher, with no agreement on changes; it was replaced on 2026-09-23.

GDELT permits unrestricted use with citation: The GDELT Project, gdeltproject.org. Synced daily by /api/cron/gdelt-events-sync.

## Why it matters

The state of Russia–Ukraine relations affects defense spending, energy markets, supply-chain risk in Eastern Europe, and the attention of Western governments. Organizations with exposure to European operations, commodity flows, or defense procurement can use alignment shifts to anticipate policy changes and market disruption. A sustained drop toward conflict or a rise toward cooperation signals a durable change in the security environment.

## How to read it

Read a 30-day average to smooth daily noise. A fall toward −1 indicates escalating material conflict; a rise toward +1 indicates expanding material cooperation. The series skips days with fewer than five material events, so gaps reflect sparse coverage, not calm. Compare levels over months, not day to day.

## What it does not say

This does not capture rhetoric, diplomatic statements, or the intensity of individual events. The Goldstein scale treats all material cooperation and all material conflict as comparable, so a minor sanction and a major offensive both move the index. Against academic annual scores, this series tracks big shifts but not year-to-year detail.

## Source

Palanor processes daily event files from the GDELT Project, which monitors global news in real time. GDELT permits unrestricted use with citation.