US material conflict share

## What this measures

Share of article-weighted events involving the United States (as either actor) that are material conflict. Material conflict includes events such as military action, threats, and coercive diplomacy, identified by negative Goldstein scores in GDELT's CAMEO event taxonomy.

## Background

Share of article-weighted events involving the United States (as either actor) that are material conflict.

Computed from GDELT's daily event export (data.gdeltproject.org/events), which machine-codes world news into CAMEO events with two actors, an event type and a Goldstein score from −10 (most conflictual) to +10 (most cooperative). Every event is weighted by the number of articles that reported it. The day is the day GDELT ingested the events. Noisy day to day; read a 7- or 30-day average. GDELT permits unrestricted use with citation: The GDELT Project, gdeltproject.org. Synced daily by /api/cron/gdelt-events-sync.

## Why it matters

A rising share signals that US interactions reported in global news are skewing toward confrontation rather than cooperation, which can presage sanctions, supply-chain disruption, or heightened regulatory scrutiny in affected regions. Organizations with international operations, defense exposure, or sensitive supply chains use this to gauge whether geopolitical friction is intensifying. Sustained elevation often precedes tangible costs: delayed shipments, capital controls, or pressure to choose sides in a polarized environment.

## How to read it

A higher percentage means conflict events make up a larger fraction of US-involved coverage. Compare current levels to the prior quarter or year to distinguish noise from a structural shift. Because the series is noisy day to day, read a seven-day or thirty-day moving average to identify direction.

## What it does not say

This measures media-reported events weighted by coverage volume, not the severity, duration, or economic impact of any single confrontation. A spike may reflect intensive reporting of one incident rather than a broad increase in hostile actions.

## Source

GDELT Events, derived from the GDELT Project daily event export, which machine-codes global news into CAMEO events with actors, event types, and Goldstein conflict-cooperation scores. Palanor processes the raw daily files under GDELT's unrestricted-use license.