GPR — Nuclear threats (% of articles)

## What this measures

Share of articles about nuclear threats as a percentage of all articles scanned by the Geopolitical Risk index. The index uses automated text search across ten major newspapers to identify coverage of nuclear threats.

## Background

Share of articles about nuclear threats.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Nuclear threat coverage reflects the perceived risk of nuclear conflict or escalation, which can shift capital flows, supply-chain decisions and contingency planning. Organizations with international operations, defense exposure or interest-rate-sensitive balance sheets watch this signal for early warnings of geopolitical stress that may disrupt markets or operations.

## How to read it

A rising share means nuclear threats are claiming more newspaper attention relative to other topics. Compare the level to historical episodes to gauge whether current coverage is elevated or routine. Because this is a share, it can rise either because nuclear coverage increases or because total article volume falls.

## What it does not say

This series measures media attention, not the actual likelihood or severity of nuclear threats. It does not indicate which countries or conflicts are involved, nor does it distinguish between new developments and continued coverage of ongoing situations.

## Source

Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), published in the American Economic Review; data hosted at matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm under CC BY 4.0. Palanor downloads the data files daily.