GPR — Terror threats (% of articles)

## What this measures

This measures the share of articles in ten major newspapers that discuss terror threats, expressed as a percentage of all articles.

## Background

Share of articles about terror threats.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Terror threats can disrupt markets, alter regulatory environments, and shift public attention. Organizations that depend on stable supply chains, international operations, or consumer confidence track this to assess the level of geopolitical alarm and anticipate changes in risk posture.

## How to read it

A rise means terror threats occupy a larger share of news coverage, signaling heightened public and media attention to potential terrorist activity. Compare this share to other GPR categories to understand which geopolitical risks dominate the news cycle.

## What it does not say

This does not measure the actual frequency or severity of terrorist incidents, nor does it predict where or when an attack will occur. It reflects only the volume of news coverage, which can be driven by media focus as much as by genuine threat levels.

## Source

Source: Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), Federal Reserve Board staff. Palanor downloads the Caldara-Iacoviello data files under CC BY 4.0 license.