Geopolitical Risk — Brazil

## What this measures

The share of articles in ten major US, UK and Canadian newspapers that mention both adverse geopolitical events or threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) and Brazil, in percent of all articles, each month. It is one of the country indexes in the Geopolitical Risk (GPR) dataset of Caldara and Iacoviello.

## Why it matters

Brazil is Latin America's largest economy and a major exporter of iron ore, soybeans, oil and gold. Press attention to geopolitical risk there picks up border and organised-crime violence, tensions over the Amazon, and Brazil's place in disputes between larger powers.

## How to read it

Higher means more of the international press is writing about Brazil in connection with conflict, threats or political violence. Since 1985 it has averaged about 0.05% of articles. Compare a month with the country's own history rather than with other countries: the level depends on how much the papers cover a country at all.

## What it does not say

It measures English-language press attention, not the risk on the ground or its severity. Local unrest that the international press does not pick up will not show. A single month can jump on one story, so read the trend over several months.

## Source

Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm (data_gpr_export.xls, column GPRC_BRA), licensed CC BY 4.0. Palanor downloads the file daily via /api/cron/gpr-sync and rounds values to four decimals.