Geopolitical Risk — China

## What this measures

This index measures the share of articles in ten major newspapers that mention both geopolitical risk and China. It captures media attention to adverse geopolitical events and threats involving China, such as military buildups, territorial disputes, or diplomatic crises.

## Background

Country GPR: share of articles mentioning geopolitical risk and China.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Organizations with exposure to China face operational, supply chain, and market risks when geopolitical tensions rise. A sustained increase in this index may signal heightened regulatory uncertainty, disruption risk, or shifting investor sentiment toward China-related assets and activities. Tracking it helps stewards anticipate when geopolitical concerns may affect commercial relationships, capital flows, or strategic planning.

## How to read it

A rising index means a larger share of articles are linking geopolitical risk to China, signaling intensified media coverage of tensions or threats. A falling index suggests those concerns are receding in prominence. Compare the level to the 100 baseline (1985–2019 average) to judge whether coverage is elevated or subdued relative to historical norms.

## What it does not say

This index reflects media coverage, not the actual severity or likelihood of geopolitical events. It does not measure economic impact, government policy decisions, or the probability of conflict.

## Source

Caldara and Iacoviello construct the Geopolitical Risk index from automated text searches of ten major newspapers. Palanor downloads the data files daily from matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm under a CC BY 4.0 license.