Geopolitical Risk — United Kingdom

## What this measures

Country GPR for the United Kingdom measures the share of articles in ten major newspapers that mention both geopolitical risk terms (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) and the United Kingdom. It reflects media attention to geopolitical events connected to the UK.

## Background

Country GPR: share of articles mentioning geopolitical risk and the United Kingdom.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Elevated geopolitical risk tied to a major economy can signal future disruption to trade, supply chains, energy markets and financial conditions. Organizations with operations, customers or suppliers linked to the UK face heightened uncertainty when this share rises. Sustained attention may precede policy shifts, capital flight or changes in business conditions.

## How to read it

The value is the percentage of all articles mentioning geopolitical risk that also reference the United Kingdom. A rising share means the UK features more prominently in geopolitical risk coverage; a falling share means less. Compare levels across time to gauge whether UK-related geopolitical attention is above or below historical norms.

## What it does not say

This index measures media coverage, not the frequency or severity of actual geopolitical events. It does not distinguish between threats and acts, nor does it indicate which risks are materializing or how markets are responding.

## Source

Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Palanor downloads the Caldara-Iacoviello data files, published by Federal Reserve Board staff under CC BY 4.0.