Geopolitical Risk — Poland

## What this measures

This measures the share of articles in ten major newspapers that mention both geopolitical risk and Poland. It reflects media attention to adverse geopolitical events and threats involving Poland, expressed as a percentage of all articles.

## Background

Country GPR: share of articles mentioning geopolitical risk and Poland.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Poland sits at the center of European security debates, bordering both NATO allies and Russia. Attention to geopolitical risk involving Poland can signal shifts in regional stability, supply-chain exposure for firms with operations in Central Europe, and changes in the strategic environment that may affect defense budgets, energy flows, and cross-border investment. Organizations with interests in the region or in sectors sensitive to European security use this signal to monitor when Poland becomes a focus of geopolitical concern.

## How to read it

A rise means a larger share of articles mention both geopolitical risk and Poland, indicating heightened media attention to threats or events involving the country. A fall means attention has declined. Compare peaks and troughs over time to identify periods of elevated concern and to place current coverage in historical context.

## What it does not say

This index does not measure the severity of events, the actual risk to Poland, or whether coverage reflects new developments or sustained attention to ongoing situations. It captures media coverage, not the underlying geopolitical reality.

## Source

Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), published in the American Economic Review and maintained by Federal Reserve Board staff. Palanor downloads the data files daily under a CC BY 4.0 license.