Geopolitical Risk — Russia

## What this measures

Country GPR for Russia measures the share of articles in ten major newspapers that mention both geopolitical risk (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) and Russia. It is a subset of the broader Geopolitical Risk index, expressed as a percentage of all articles.

## Background

Country GPR: share of articles mentioning geopolitical risk and Russia.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Elevated readings signal that geopolitical tensions involving Russia are prominent in the press, which can translate into supply-chain disruptions, energy-market volatility, sanctions risk, and heightened uncertainty around trade and investment flows. Organizations with exposure to European markets, energy prices, or commodities face greater planning risk when this index rises.

## How to read it

A higher percentage means a larger share of coverage links Russia to geopolitical risk, indicating intensifying or more visible tensions. Compare this country index to other country GPR measures or to the aggregate GPR index to gauge whether Russia accounts for an outsized share of geopolitical concern at any given time.

## What it does not say

This index reflects media coverage, not the actual severity or outcome of geopolitical events. It does not predict whether tensions will escalate or abate, nor does it measure economic impact directly.

## Source

Caldara-Iacoviello GPR, published by Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board staff) under CC BY 4.0. Palanor downloads the data files daily from matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm.