Geopolitical Risk — Taiwan

## What this measures

This series measures the share of articles in ten major newspapers that mention both geopolitical risk, war, military buildups, nuclear threats, or terrorism, and Taiwan. It captures the intensity of Taiwan-related geopolitical coverage relative to all news.

## Background

Country GPR: share of articles mentioning geopolitical risk and Taiwan.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Rising geopolitical attention to Taiwan signals heightened risk of conflict or military tension in the Taiwan Strait, which can disrupt global semiconductor supply chains, trigger capital flight from Asian markets, and force organizations to reassess exposure to cross-strait trade and investment. Organizations with operations, suppliers, or customers in Taiwan or mainland China face direct operational and reputational risk when this coverage intensifies.

## How to read it

A higher share means Taiwan features more prominently in geopolitical risk reporting. Compare the level to the 1985–2019 average of 100 to assess whether current coverage is elevated or subdued. Sustained increases suggest geopolitical risk around Taiwan is gaining attention; sharp spikes often follow military exercises, diplomatic incidents, or threat statements.

## What it does not say

This series reflects media coverage, not the probability or severity of conflict. It does not measure troop movements, policy decisions, or the actual military balance across the Taiwan Strait.

## Source

Caldara and Iacoviello construct the Geopolitical Risk index from automated text search of ten major newspapers. Palanor downloads the data files from matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm under CC BY 4.0 license.