Geopolitical Risk — Ukraine

## What this measures

Country GPR for Ukraine measures the share of articles in ten major newspapers that mention both geopolitical risk and Ukraine. It reflects media attention to adverse geopolitical events involving Ukraine, such as conflict, military buildups or nuclear threats.

## Background

Country GPR: share of articles mentioning geopolitical risk and Ukraine.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Elevated risk tied to Ukraine can signal supply-chain disruption (grain, energy, metals), currency volatility and shifts in defense spending. Organizations with exposure to Eastern Europe or commodity markets use the index to anticipate when geopolitical tension may affect operations, planning or capital allocation. It also helps boards and stewards time scenario planning and communication.

## How to read it

A rise means a larger share of articles link Ukraine to geopolitical risk, indicating heightened media attention to adverse events or threats. Compare this country index to the main GPR index or other country indexes to see whether Ukraine risk is moving independently or as part of a broader pattern.

## What it does not say

The index measures media coverage, not the severity or likelihood of actual events. It does not forecast outcomes, distinguish between different types of threats or indicate whether markets have already priced in the risk.

## Source

Caldara and Iacoviello (2022), published in the American Economic Review and maintained by Federal Reserve Board staff. Palanor downloads the data files under a CC BY 4.0 license.