Geopolitical Risk — United States

## What this measures

This index measures the share of articles in ten major newspapers that mention both geopolitical risk (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) and the United States. It is expressed as a percentage of all articles scanned.

## Background

Country GPR: share of articles mentioning geopolitical risk and the United States.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Organizations face direct costs from geopolitical instability: supply-chain disruptions, currency volatility, personnel safety and shifts in government spending. When press attention to U.S. geopolitical risk rises, it often signals that uncertainty is spreading beyond defense circles into wider business planning. The index helps stewards anticipate when geopolitical concerns may delay investment, tighten credit or reshape regulatory priorities.

## How to read it

A higher percentage means more articles are linking the United States to geopolitical risk, signaling elevated press attention to threats or events. Compare the current level to the long-run average (100 in the base period) to judge whether coverage is routine or unusually high. Month-to-month moves reflect the intensity of geopolitical news cycles.

## What it does not say

The index does not measure the actual severity of geopolitical events, only how often newspapers write about them. Press coverage may lag or lead real risks, and it cannot distinguish between genuine threats and media focus.

## Source

Caldara-Iacoviello GPR index, built by Federal Reserve Board staff from automated text searches of ten major newspapers (Caldara and Iacoviello, 2022, American Economic Review). Palanor downloads the data files under CC BY 4.0.