Geopolitical Risk Index (daily)

## What this measures

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats, war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism, as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average.

## Background

Daily Geopolitical Risk index (Caldara-Iacoviello), 1985 onward. Noisy day to day; read the 7- or 30-day trend.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Spikes in geopolitical risk can tighten financial conditions, delay investment decisions and disrupt supply chains. Organizations exposed to cross-border operations, commodity markets or defense spending watch the index to gauge when uncertainty may require contingency planning or hedging. Sustained elevation signals a climate in which partners and customers may pause commitments.

## How to read it

Higher values mean a greater share of newspaper coverage is devoted to geopolitical threats and events. A rise indicates heightened media attention to geopolitical risk; a fall indicates less. Because the series is noisy day to day, read the 7- or 30-day trend to distinguish signal from volatility.

## What it does not say

The index measures news coverage, not the actual frequency or severity of geopolitical events. It does not forecast conflicts, assess military capabilities or indicate which threats will materialize.

## Source

Palanor downloads the Caldara-Iacoviello data files, compiled by Federal Reserve Board staff from automated text searches of ten major newspapers and released under CC BY 4.0.