Geopolitical Risk — Acts (daily)

## What this measures

This index counts newspaper articles about the beginning or escalation of wars and terrorist acts as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, scaled so that 100 equals the 1985–2019 average. It updates daily using automated text search.

## Background

Daily acts sub-index: articles about the beginning or escalation of war and terror acts.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

A spike in coverage of war and terror can signal abrupt changes in operating conditions for supply chains, foreign operations, energy markets and regulatory priorities. Tracking acts separately from threats helps distinguish between events that have already occurred and rhetoric about future risks.

## How to read it

A rising index means more coverage of wars starting or intensifying and terrorist acts. Compare the current reading to 100, the long-run average, to assess whether such events are receiving unusually heavy attention. The acts sub-index can be read alongside the threats sub-index to separate unfolding crises from warnings.

## What it does not say

The index measures article volume, not the severity, location or economic impact of the events described. It does not forecast whether geopolitical tensions will escalate or affect particular countries or sectors.

## Source

Caldara and Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board staff) publish the Geopolitical Risk index using articles from ten newspapers. Palanor downloads their data files under a CC BY 4.0 license.