Geopolitical Risk — Threats (daily)

## What this measures

This index measures the daily frequency of newspaper articles about geopolitical threats, war threats, military buildups, nuclear threats and terrorism, as a share of all articles published in ten major newspapers. The index value is scaled so that 100 equals the average over 1985–2019.

## Background

Daily threats sub-index: articles about war threats, military buildups, nuclear and terror threats.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Rising threat coverage often precedes or accompanies market volatility, shifts in defense spending and disruption to cross-border supply chains. Organizations with international operations, commodity exposure or government contracts use it to gauge when geopolitical tension is climbing into the headlines. A sustained rise can signal heightened risk to personnel, logistics and demand.

## How to read it

A higher index means geopolitical threats occupy a larger share of news coverage. Compare the current level to 100 (the historical average) and to recent months to see whether threat reporting is elevated or subsiding. Sharp rises often follow specific events; gradual trends reflect broader security environments.

## What it does not say

The index reflects news coverage, not the actual frequency or severity of threats. It does not say which regions or actors are involved, nor does it predict conflict outcomes or economic consequences.

## Source

Caldara-Iacoviello GPR index, constructed by Dario Caldara and Matteo Iacoviello (Federal Reserve Board staff) via automated text search of ten newspapers. Palanor downloads the data files under CC BY 4.0 license.