Geopolitical Risk Index — Historical (1900 →)

## What this measures

The historical GPR index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats in three newspapers from 1900 onward, scaled so that 100 represents the 1985–2019 average. It is calculated the same way as the modern GPR index but uses a smaller newspaper set to extend coverage through both world wars.

## Background

The historical GPR index from three newspapers, 1900 onward — spans both world wars.

The Geopolitical Risk index counts articles about adverse geopolitical events and threats (war, military buildups, nuclear threats, terrorism) as a share of all articles in ten major newspapers, via automated text search. 100 is the 1985–2019 average. Threats and acts are separate sub-indexes; the eight categories are each category's share of all articles, in percent; the country indexes count articles that mention both geopolitical risk and that country.

Source: Caldara, Dario and Matteo Iacoviello (2022), "Measuring Geopolitical Risk," American Economic Review 112(4), 1194–1225. Data: matteoiacoviello.com/gpr.htm, CC BY 4.0. Synced daily by /api/cron/gpr-sync.

## Why it matters

Geopolitical shocks can disrupt supply chains, freeze investment decisions and alter demand patterns across borders. A steward who monitors geopolitical risk can prepare contingency plans, adjust inventory policy or reassess exposure to affected regions before disruptions reach the organization. The historical series provides context for comparing current risks to those during major conflicts.

## How to read it

A rise indicates more press coverage of geopolitical threats or events relative to all articles; a fall indicates less. Compare the current level to 100 to see whether risk is above or below the long-run average, or to historical peaks to gauge the severity of the present environment.

## What it does not say

The index does not measure the economic impact of geopolitical events, the probability that threats materialize or the severity of conflicts; it reflects only the frequency of newspaper coverage within the three-paper sample.

## Source

Caldara and Iacoviello at the Federal Reserve Board publish the GPR data under CC BY 4.0. Palanor downloads the data files daily.